According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration’s EPA administrator, Lee Zeldin, is preparing to repeal the 2009 “endangerment finding.” That finding established that greenhouse gases pose a threat to human health and welfare. The repeal could happen as early as this week.
The 2009 finding provided the legal foundation for federal regulation of six greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide and methane. It has faced previous legal challenges, but those were unsuccessful. This new move is almost certain to trigger numerous lawsuits, and a final resolution could take years.
While the EPA’s action would directly affect only tailpipe emissions for cars and trucks, the administration is expected to use it to unwind regulations in other sectors, such as power plants and industrial facilities.
Legacy automakers, which had pushed the Trump administration to weaken fuel efficiency rules, notably did not advocate for repealing the endangerment finding. Tesla explicitly asked the EPA to maintain it, stating the finding was “based on a robust factual and scientific record.”
If successful, this repeal would put the United States increasingly out of step with climate regulations in other advanced economies. Companies operating internationally would need to develop different approaches for each market, raising costs.
Automakers face a particularly challenging future, forced to serve bifurcated markets in the near term. Regulatory whiplash in the U.S., combined with rising competition from China, has already cost automakers tens of billions of dollars. American automakers’ heavy reliance on profitable fossil fuel-powered trucks has painted the domestic industry into a corner, distracting them from future-proofing their fleets ahead of expected competition from Chinese brands.
The Trump administration told the Wall Street Journal it expects this policy change to save more than $1 trillion, though it provided no evidence to support that figure. The costs of climate change are projected to be far higher. The Congressional Budget Office found that nearly $1 trillion worth of U.S. real estate is threatened by rising sea levels, and U.S. mortality rates could be 2% higher if global warming continues unabated. A separate 2024 study concluded that climate change could reduce global GDP by 17% by 2050, an economic impact equivalent to $38 trillion per year.