The explosive growth of data centers could threaten the stability of the electrical grid this winter, according to an industry overseer. Across North America, demand for electricity this winter is expected to be 2.5 percent higher than last year for a total of 20 gigawatts, the North American Electric Reliability Corporation said in a report released this week. In recent years, winter demand grew by one percent or less.
Data centers are driving a significant chunk of that growth, especially in the mid-Atlantic, the U.S. West, and the U.S. Southeast. These are areas where a lot of data center development is occurring, according to Mark Olson, the corporation’s manager of reliability assessments. The report specifically calls out data center expansion in Texas, saying that it is contributing to continued risk of supply shortfalls.
That finding might be particularly worrisome to Texans, who nearly five years ago suffered through massive power outages during an intense cold snap. At that time, natural gas power plants tripped offline as wellheads froze, slashing the supply of natural gas. Meanwhile, demand for the fossil fuel soared as residential and commercial customers tried to keep homes and offices warm. The governor publicly blamed wind turbines, despite knowing that they were only a small part of the problem.
This year, the situation in Texas is not likely to be as dire as it was in February 2021, in part because so many batteries have been added to the state’s grid. Those batteries can step in to provide electricity if gas-fired power plants cannot deliver as intended. They can also react more quickly to smaller disruptions than peaker power plants, most of which run on natural gas and require minutes to start up.
Still, Texas is not entirely in the clear. Most of the batteries deployed in Texas can deliver electricity for a few hours at a time. That is suitable in circumstances where demand tends to peak for a short time, like in the evening when people return from work. But data centers tend to draw electricity consistently throughout the day. If a prolonged cold snap hits the state, keeping those batteries sufficiently charged to deliver power to all customers, including data centers, will become more challenging.
If this winter passes without a significant storm, then the organization anticipates no problems with any region’s electrical grid. But over the last five years, there have been four severe storms, which could force grid operators to import electricity, ask large customers to curtail their use, or as a last resort, institute rolling blackouts.