Prediction market users have made and profited from significant bets surrounding the bombing of Iran by the U.S. and Israeli military. On Polymarket, a total of $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the attack.
An analysis by the analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found that six newly created accounts earned a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by February 28. This behavior could potentially indicate insider trading.
While these bets might simply reflect broader speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran, Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman noted that the circulation of information involving war or conflict, combined with Polymarket’s anonymity, can create incentives for informed participants to act early.
Earlier in January, the analytics firm Polysights also noted an apparent spike in bets around the likelihood that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer hold his role by the end of March.
In response to concerns that such bets might place a financial incentive on assassination, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the issue. He stated that his platform does not list markets directly tied to death. When markets have potential outcomes that involve death, the rules are designed to prevent people from profiting from it. He added that Kalshi would reimburse all fees from these types of bets.