On Thursday, during Coinbase’s third quarter earnings call, CEO Brian Armstrong admitted he was a little bit distracted. He explained he had been tracking a prediction market about what Coinbase would say on its next earnings call.
He then added, “And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.” Armstrong spoke these words without any apparent context because users on “mention markets” on Kalshi and Polymarket had wagered they would be spoken on the call. By saying them, Armstrong allowed some of those bets to pay off.
While mention markets are a relatively niche part of prediction markets, a total of eighty-four thousand dollars had been bet on whether certain words would be spoken on the cryptocurrency company’s call. While Armstrong may have helped some users make money, he also illustrated how easily these markets can be manipulated when executives become aware of them.
Jeff Dorman, the Chief Investment Officer at digital assets investment firm Arca, wrote that you need your head examined if you think it is cute or clever or savvy that the CEO of the biggest company in this industry openly manipulated a market. He said it is not fun working tirelessly for eight years trying to educate institutional investors on the value of crypto investing as an investable asset class, and working to help them gain comfort in this industry, while one of the supposed leaders openly mocks the industry with crap like this.
Polymarket posted that Armstrong’s comments were diabolical work.
Coinbase is moving into supporting prediction markets itself through its Everything Exchange, which Armstrong touted on the earnings call. The company has also invested in both Kalshi and Polymarket. A Coinbase spokesperson told Bloomberg that the company prohibits employees from participating in prediction markets or related activity around the company.
After his remarks began drawing attention, Armstrong wrote that it was fun and happened spontaneously when someone on his team dropped a link in the chat.