Astro Teller, CEO of X, which is known as Alphabet’s moonshot factory, recently spoke at the TechCrunch Disrupt 2025 conference. He explained what defines a moonshot and detailed the company’s philosophy of failing fast. X is the place where Alphabet incubits nearly impossible ideas, and notable companies like Waymo and Wing began as moonshots there.
Teller revealed that X has a two percent hit rate, meaning most of their attempts do not succeed, and the company is comfortable with that outcome. He defined a moonshot as having three specific components. First, it must attempt to solve a massive global problem. Second, there must be a proposed product or service that could potentially make that problem disappear. Third, there needs to be a breakthrough technology that offers a realistic hope for a solution.
He provided an example, saying that if an employee proposed a teleporter, he would call it a moonshot story hypothesis. He would then provide a small amount of money not to make it work, but to see if they could prove it was wrong. The goal is to gather information to determine if an idea is a true generational opportunity, and it is acceptable if the answer is no.
Teller further noted that if a proposed idea sounds reasonable, it is not a moonshot by definition. That does not make it a bad idea, but it is simply not what X is seeking. He said that if a proposal sounds wild, has the three components, and is a testable hypothesis, a small investment can reveal if it is more or less crazy than initially thought. If it is more crazy, the project is ended. If it is less crazy, a little more money is provided to find the next reason to stop it, repeating the process.
He emphasized that pursuing moonshots requires equal amounts of audacity and humility. High audacity is needed to start these unlikely journeys, while high humility is required to avoid going too far down an unproductive path.
Teller shared that X starts over one hundred new projects each year. While only two percent of them succeed after five or six years, forty-four percent of the company’s total spending goes to the projects that graduate and become outrageously successful. This is because X identifies and stops bad ideas very early in the process.
Finally, Teller stated that people can learn innovation. He believes everyone was creative as a child, but we unlearn useful traits that are necessary for radical innovation. However, it is possible to rediscover these abilities by creating an environment where people do not feel foolish for exploring new ideas.