When Alan Cole saw Elon Musk fans eagerly bidding up a contract on the prediction market Kalshi, he knew he had to take a bet. The contract was based on the idea that the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, could effectively reduce federal spending within a year. Cole, an international tax accountant, was certain of one thing: federal spending could not be quickly cut. He explained this belief to the Wall Street Journal. Even if DOGE canceled some federal contracts and laid off workers, which it did, a vast number of remaining obligations and the skyrocketing federal debt would persist.
Confident in his assessment, Cole wagered his entire life savings—over $342,000—to take the counter position that the U.S. federal budget would not instantly shrink. He slowly accumulated three percent of a Kalshi prediction market that had grown to $12 million, making a few hedging bets along the way.
The government released its 2025 year-end spending report on February twentieth. The report showed that spending had increased compared to 2024. With that result, Alan Cole walked away with $470,300, earning a profit of $128,000.