A new report from Adobe Analytics forecasts that the U.S. holiday shopping season will generate $253.4 billion in online sales this year. This represents a 5.3 percent increase compared to the previous year. Adobe Analytics develops its predictions by analyzing over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, which includes data from 100 million unique products across 18 different categories. The company’s software is used by a majority of the top 100 online retailers, providing deep insights into consumer behavior.
Cyber Monday is projected to be the biggest shopping day of the year, with sales expected to grow 6.3 percent to reach $14.2 billion. Black Friday will also see significant growth, with an 8.3 percent increase to hit $11.7 billion. Online sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to start early, reaching $6.4 billion, a 4.9 percent year-over-year increase.
A major driver of sales this season is consumer demand for discounts, with products expected to be discounted by an average of 28 percent. Other key factors behind the rise in online sales include shopping from mobile devices, the use of AI services, and the growing adoption of buy now, pay later options.
Adobe predicts a massive boom in generative AI-powered shopping this year. AI traffic to retail sites is set to rise by 520 percent year-over-year, with a peak in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows a 1300 percent increase in AI traffic observed in 2024. Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 53 percent said they may use AI services for research before making a purchase. The survey also found that 40 percent would use AI for product recommendations, 36 percent for finding deals, and 30 percent for gift inspiration. AI is expected to be used most frequently for categories like toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Mobile devices are expected to drive a record 56.1 percent of online spending this holiday season, surpassing desktop shopping. Last year, mobile accounted for 54.5 percent of online transactions, which was up from 51.1 percent in 2023. It remains unclear when this mobile growth will stabilize, especially as larger-screened smartphones make online shopping easier.
The 2025 holiday season will also see further growth of buy now, pay later services. These services are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend, an 11 percent year-over-year increase and around $2 billion more than the 2024 season. Cyber Monday is expected to set a new record for buy now, pay later, with online spend in this category reaching $1.04 billion, a 5 percent increase.
Social media is projected to drive significantly more online sales this year. Revenue attributed to social media advertising is expected to increase by 51 percent year-over-year, a substantial jump from the 5 percent growth seen in 2024.
The top categories for overall consumer spending are projected to be electronics at $57.5 billion, a 4 percent increase, apparel at $47.6 billion, a 4.4 percent increase, and furniture at $31.1 billion, a 6.5 percent increase.