A new report from Adobe Analytics forecasts that the U.S. holiday shopping season will generate $253.4 billion in online sales this year. This represents a 5.3 percent increase compared to the previous year. Adobe Analytics develops its predictions by analyzing over one trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covering 100 million unique products across 18 different categories. The company’s software is used by a majority of the top 100 online retailers, providing deep insights into consumer behavior.
Cyber Monday is projected to be the biggest shopping day of the year, with sales rising 6.3 percent to reach $14.2 billion. Black Friday will also see significant growth, increasing 8.3 percent to hit $11.7 billion. Online sales on Thanksgiving Day are expected to reach $6.4 billion, a 4.9 percent increase, as holiday shopping starts earlier.
A primary driver of sales is consumer demand for discounts, with products expected to be discounted by an average of 28 percent. Additional factors contributing to the rise in online sales include shopping from mobile devices, the use of AI services, and buy now, pay later options.
Adobe predicts a major boom in generative AI-powered shopping this year. AI traffic to retail sites is set to rise by 520 percent, peaking in the ten days leading up to Thanksgiving. This follows a 1300 percent increase in AI traffic observed in 2024. Based on a survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 53 percent said they may use AI services for product research. The survey also found that 40 percent would use AI for recommendations, 36 percent for finding deals, and 30 percent for gift inspiration. AI is expected to be used most heavily for categories like toys, electronics, jewelry, and personal care.
Mobile devices are expected to set a new record by driving 56.1 percent of all online sales, surpassing desktop shopping. Last year, mobile accounted for 54.5 percent of online transactions during the holiday period, which was up from 51.1 percent in 2023.
The 2025 holiday season will also see further growth of buy now, pay later services. These services are expected to drive $20.2 billion in online spend, an 11 percent year-over-year increase. On Cyber Monday alone, buy now, pay later spending is projected to reach a new milestone of $1.04 billion, a 5 percent increase.
Social media is anticipated to be a powerful sales channel, with social media advertising expected to drive a 51 percent year-over-year increase in online revenue.
The top categories for overall consumer spending are projected to be electronics at $57.5 billion, apparel at $47.6 billion, and furniture at $31.1 billion.